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Title:Perhaps the FOMC did what it said it did: An alternative interpretation of the Great Inflation PDF Logo
Authors:Kozicki, Sharon
Tinsley, P. A.
Issue Date:2007
Series/Report no.:Bank of Canada Working Paper 2007,19
Abstract:This paper uses real-time briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to provide estimates of historical changes in the design of U.S. monetary policy and in the implied central-bank target for inflation. Empirical results support a description of policy with an effective inflation target of roughly 7 percent in the 1970s. Moreover, the evidence suggests that mismeasurement of the degree of economic slack was largely irrelevant for explaining the Great Inflation while favouring a passive-policy description of monetary policy. FOMC transcripts provide a neglected interpretation of the source of passive policyintermediate targeting of monetary aggregates.
Subjects:Central bank research
Monetary aggregates
Monetary policy implementation
JEL:E3
E5
N1
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Bank of Canada Working Papers

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