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dc.contributor.authorAlquist, Ronen_US
dc.contributor.authorKilian, Lutzen_US
dc.contributor.authorVigfusson, Robert J.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-08en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-12-15T12:58:09Z-
dc.date.available2011-12-15T12:58:09Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/53915-
dc.description.abstractWe address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate into gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil price forecast to alternative assumptions about future demand and supply conditions? How does one quantify risks associated with oil price forecasts? Can joint forecasts of the price of oil and of U.S. real GDP growth be improved upon by allowing for asymmetries?en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherBank of Canada Ottawaen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesBank of Canada Working Paper 2011,15en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.jelQ43en_US
dc.subject.jelQ47en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordEconometric and statistical methodsen_US
dc.subject.keywordInternational topicsen_US
dc.subject.stwÖlpreisen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwStatistische Methodeen_US
dc.titleForecasting the price of oilen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn661652548en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:Bank of Canada Working Papers

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