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dc.contributor.authorDePratto, Brianen_US
dc.contributor.authorDe Resende, Carlosen_US
dc.contributor.authorMaier, Philippen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-12-15T12:56:14Z-
dc.date.available2011-12-15T12:56:14Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/53814-
dc.description.abstractWe estimate a New Keynesian general-equilibrium open economy model to examine how changes in oil prices affect the macroeconomy. Our model allows oil price changes to be transmitted through temporary demand and supply channels (affecting the output gap), as well as through persistent supply side effects (affecting trend growth). We estimate this model for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States over the period 1971-2008, and find that it matches the data very well in terms of first and second moments. We conclude that (i) energy prices affect the economy primarily through the supply side, whereas we do not find substantial demand-side effects; (ii) higher oil prices have temporary negative effects on both the output gap and on trend growth, which translates into a permanent reduction in the level of potential and actual output. Also, results for the United States indicate that oil supply shocks have more persistent negative effects on trend growth than oil demand shocks. These effects are statistically significant; however, our simulations also indicate that the effects are economically small.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherBank of Canada Ottawaen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesBank of Canada Working Paper 2009,33en_US
dc.subject.jelF41en_US
dc.subject.jelQ43en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordEconomic modelsen_US
dc.subject.keywordInterest ratesen_US
dc.subject.keywordTransmission of monetary policyen_US
dc.subject.keywordProductivityen_US
dc.subject.keywordPotential outputen_US
dc.subject.stwMineralölpreisschocken_US
dc.subject.stwMakroökonomischer Einflussen_US
dc.subject.stwZinsen_US
dc.subject.stwProduktivitäten_US
dc.subject.stwGesamtwirtschaftliche Produktionen_US
dc.subject.stwGeldpolitiken_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.subject.stwKanadaen_US
dc.subject.stwGroßbritannienen_US
dc.titleHow changes in oil prices affect the macroeconomyen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn618955356en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
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