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DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorXu, Haiyanen_US
dc.contributor.authorZhang, ZhongXiangen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-03-17en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-12-15T11:30:51Z-
dc.date.available2011-12-15T11:30:51Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/53184-
dc.description.abstractCrude oil prices have been fluctuating over time and by a large range. It is the disorganization of oil price series that makes it difficult to deduce the changing trends of oil prices in the middle- and long-terms and predict their price levels in the short-term. Following a price-state classification and state transition analysis of changing oil prices from January 2004 to April 2010, this paper first verifies that the observed crude oil price series during the soaring period follow a Markov Chain. Next, the paper deduces the changing trends of oil prices by the limit probability of a Markov Chain. We then undertake a probability distribution analysis and find that the oil price series have a log-normality distribution. On this basis, we integrate the two models to deduce the changing trends of oil prices from the short-term to the middle- and long-terms, thus making our deduction academically sound. Our results match the actual changing trends of oil prices, and show the possibility of re-emerging soaring oil prices.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherFondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Milanoen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesNota di lavoro // Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei: Sustainable development 22.2011en_US
dc.subject.jelQ41en_US
dc.subject.jelQ47en_US
dc.subject.jelC12en_US
dc.subject.jelC49en_US
dc.subject.jelF01en_US
dc.subject.jelO13en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordOil Priceen_US
dc.subject.keywordLog-normality Distributionen_US
dc.subject.keywordLimit Probability of a Markov Chainen_US
dc.subject.keywordTrend Deduction Modelen_US
dc.subject.keywordOPECen_US
dc.titleA trend deduction model of fluctuating oil pricesen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn65437046Xen_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:FEEM Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

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