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dc.contributor.authorSnowberg, Eriken_US
dc.contributor.authorWolfers, Justinen_US
dc.contributor.authorZitzewitz, Ericen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-08-09en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-11-23T11:44:38Z-
dc.date.available2011-11-23T11:44:38Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.piurn:nbn:de:101:1-201104193273en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/52119-
dc.description.abstractThis review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government to the importance of complex rules in congressional committees. However, the results of event studies are notoriously sensitive to both choices made by researchers and external events. Specifically, event studies will generally produce different results depending on three interrelated things: which event window is chosen, the prior probability assigned to an event at the beginning of the event window, and the presence or absence of other events during the event window. In this paper we show how each of these may bias the results of event studies, and how prediction markets can mitigate these biases.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherIZA Bonnen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiscussion paper series // Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 5640en_US
dc.subject.jelA2en_US
dc.subject.jelC58en_US
dc.subject.jelD72en_US
dc.subject.jelH50en_US
dc.subject.jelG14en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordprediction marketsen_US
dc.subject.keywordevent studiesen_US
dc.subject.keywordpolitical economyen_US
dc.subject.stwEvent Studyen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwPolitisches Zielen_US
dc.subject.stwTheorieen_US
dc.titleHow prediction markets can save event studiesen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn665584261en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:IZA Discussion Papers, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

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