|
EconStor >
Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), Kiel >
Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal - Journal Articles >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/50737
|
| | |
| Title: | | The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank  |
| Authors: | | Skrove Falch, Nina Nymoen, Ragnar |
| Issue Date: | | 2011 |
| Citation: | | [Journal:] Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal [Volume:] 5 [Issue:] 2011-15 [Pages:] 1-36 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Economics 2011-15 |
| Abstract: | | This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both naive forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside the central bank. We find that the superiority of the bank's forecast cannot be asserted, when compared with genuine ex-ante real time forecasts from an independent econometric model. The 1-step Monetary Policy Report forecasts are preferable to the 1-step forecasts from the outside model, but for the policy relevant horizons (e.g., 4 quarters ahead), the forecasts from the outsider model are preferred with a wider margin. An explanation in terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges Bank's forecasts are better than the naive forecasts. Norwegian inflation appears to be predictable, despite the reduction in inflation persistence that has taken place over the last two decades. |
| Subjects: | | inflation forecasts monetary policy forecast comparison forecast targeting central bank econometric models |
| JEL: | | C32 C53 E37 E44 E47 E52 E58 E65 |
| Persistent Identifier of the first edition: | | doi:10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2011-15 |
| Creative Commons License: | |  |
| Document Type: | | Article |
| Appears in Collections: | | Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal - Journal Articles
|
| |
| | |
Download bibliographical data as:
BibTeX
|
| |
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/50737
|
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
|