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Title:Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data PDF Logo
Authors:Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
Siliverstovs, Boriss
Issue Date:2009
Series/Report no.:KOF working papers // Konjunkturforschungsstelle, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich 215
Abstract:The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naïve forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.
Subjects:Quality of statistical data
real-time data
signal-to-noise ratio
forecasts
revisions
JEL:C53
C89
Persistent Identifier of the first edition:doi:10.3929/ethz-a-005778341
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:KOF Working Papers, KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle, ETH Zürich

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