Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/50384
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dc.contributor.authorDreher, Axelen_US
dc.contributor.authorMarchesi, Silviaen_US
dc.contributor.authorVreeland, James Raymonden_US
dc.date.accessioned2008-10-23en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-10-06T15:40:55Z-
dc.date.available2011-10-06T15:40:55Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_US
dc.identifier.pidoi:10.3929/ethz-a-005476320en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/50384-
dc.description.abstractUsing panel data for 157 countries over the period 1999-2005 we empirically investigate the politics involved in IMF economic forecasts. We find a systematic bias in growth and inflation forecasts. Our results indicate that countries voting in line with the US in the UN General Assembly receive lower inflation forecasts. As the US is the Fund's major shareholder, this result supports the hypothesis that the Fund's forecasts are not purely based on economic considerations. We further find inflation forecasts are systematically biased downwards for countries with greater IMF loans outstanding relative to GDP, indicating that the IMF engages in defensive forecasting. Countries with a fixed exchange rate regime also receive low inflation forecasts. Considering the detrimental effects that inflation can have under such an exchange rate regime, we consider this evidence consistent with the Fund's desire to preserve economic stability.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisher|aKOF |cZürichen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aKOF working papers // Konjunkturforschungsstelle, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich |x176en_US
dc.subject.jelC23en_US
dc.subject.jelD72en_US
dc.subject.jelF33en_US
dc.subject.jelF34en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordIMFen_US
dc.subject.keywordEconomic Forecastsen_US
dc.subject.keywordPolitical Influenceen_US
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftsprognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwInternationale Wirtschaftsorganisationen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwBiasen_US
dc.subject.stwIdeologieen_US
dc.subject.stwWelten_US
dc.titleThe politics of IMF forecastsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn583331998en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US

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