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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/50326
  
Title:Assessing predictive content of the KOF Barometer in real time PDF Logo
Authors:Siliverstovs, Boriss
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:KOF working papers // KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich 249
Abstract:We investigate whether the KOF Barometer - a leading indicator regularly released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute - can be useful for short-term out-of-sample prediction of year-on-year quarterly real GDP growth rates in Switzerland. We find that the KOF Barometer appears to be useful for prediction of GDP growth rates. Even the earliest forecasts, made seven months ahead of the first official GDP estimate, allow us to predict GDP growth rates more accurately than forecasts based on an univariate autoregressive model. At every subsequent forecast round as new monthly releases of the KOF Barometer become available we observe a steady increase in forecast accuracy.
Subjects:Leading indicators
forecasting
Bayesian model averaging
Switzerland
JEL:C53
C22
Persistent Identifier of the first edition:doi:10.3929/ethz-a-005975789
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:KOF Working Papers, KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle, ETH Zürich

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