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Title:Checking the price tag on catastrophe: The social cost of carbon under non-linear climate response PDF Logo
Authors:Ceronsky, Megan
Anthoff, David
Hepburn, Cameron
Tol, Richard S. J.
Issue Date:2011
Series/Report no.:ESRI working paper 392
Abstract:Research into the social cost of carbon emissions - the marginal social damage from a tonne of emitted carbon - has tended to focus on best guess scenarios. Such scenarios generally ignore the potential for low-probability, high-damage events, which are critically important to determining optimal climate policy. This paper uses the FUND integrated assessment model to investigate the influence of three types of low-probability, high-impact climate responses on the social cost of carbon: the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation; large scale dissociation of oceanic methane hydrates; and climate sensitivities above best guess levels. We find that incorporating these events can increase the social cost of carbon by a factor of over 3.
Subjects:climate change
catastrophe
non-linearity
impacts
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:ESRI Working Papers, The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

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