Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/50076
Authors: 
Tol, Richard S. J.
Year of Publication: 
2011
Series/Report no.: 
ESRI working paper 382
Abstract: 
This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3 °C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3 °C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7 °C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.
Subjects: 
climate change
economic impact
meta-analysis
social cost of carbon
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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