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| Title: | | The uncertainty about the total economic impact of climate change  |
| Authors: | | Tol, Richard S. J. |
| Issue Date: | | 2011 |
| Series/Report no.: | | ESRI working paper 382 |
| Abstract: | | This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3 °C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3 °C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7 °C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year. |
| Subjects: | | climate change economic impact meta-analysis social cost of carbon |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | ESRI Working Papers, The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
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