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dc.contributor.authorCongleton, Roger D.en_US
dc.description.abstractThis paper provides a rational choice-based analysis of the causes and consequences of surprise events. The paper argues that ignorance may be rational, but nonetheless produce systematic mistakes, inconsistent behavior, and both pleasant and unpleasant surprises. If ignorance and unpleasant surprises are commonplace and relevant for individual and group decisionmaking, we should observe standing institutions for dealing with them - and we do. Insofar as surprises are consistent with rational choice models, but left outside most models, it can be argued that these methodological choices mistakenly limit the scope of rational choicebased research.en_US
dc.publisherCIW Münsteren_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiskussionspapier // Centrum für Interdisziplinäre Wirtschaftsforschung 6/2011en_US
dc.subject.keywordRational Ignoranceen_US
dc.subject.keywordNatural Ignoranceen_US
dc.subject.keywordBounded Rationalityen_US
dc.subject.keywordRational Choiceen_US
dc.subject.keywordBiased Expectationsen_US
dc.subject.keywordCrisis Managementen_US
dc.subject.keywordSocial Insuranceen_US
dc.subject.keywordEconomics of Informationen_US
dc.titleCoping with unpleasant surprises in a complex world: Is rational choice possible in a world with positive information costs?en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
Appears in Collections:Diskussionsbeiträge des Centrums für Interdisziplinäre Wirtschaftsforschung, WWU Münster

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