EconStor >
The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md. >
Department of Economics, The Johns Hopkins University >
Working Papers, Department of Economics, The Johns Hopkins University >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/49905
  
Title:On the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment: New experimental evidence regarding Linda PDF Logo
Authors:Charness, Gary
Karni, Edi
Levin, Dan
Issue Date:2009
Series/Report no.:Working papers // the Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics 552
Abstract:This paper reports the results of a series of experiments designed to test whether and to what extent individuals succumb to the conjunction fallacy. Using an experimental design of Kahneman and Tversky (1983), it finds that given mild incentives, the proportion of individuals who violate the conjunction principle is significantly lower than that reported by Kahneman and Tversky. Moreover, when subjects are allowed to consult with other subjects, these proportions fall dramatically, particularly when the size of the group rises from two to three. These findings cast serious doubts about the importance and robustness of such violations for the understanding of real-life economic decisions.
Subjects:Conjunction fallacy
representativeness bias
group consultation
incentives
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Working Papers, Department of Economics, The Johns Hopkins University

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
601165225.pdf54.58 kBAdobe PDF
No. of Downloads: Counter Stats
Download bibliographical data as: BibTeX
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/49905

Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.