Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/49905 
Year of Publication: 
2009
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 552
Publisher: 
The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics, Baltimore, MD
Abstract: 
This paper reports the results of a series of experiments designed to test whether and to what extent individuals succumb to the conjunction fallacy. Using an experimental design of Kahneman and Tversky (1983), it finds that given mild incentives, the proportion of individuals who violate the conjunction principle is significantly lower than that reported by Kahneman and Tversky. Moreover, when subjects are allowed to consult with other subjects, these proportions fall dramatically, particularly when the size of the group rises from two to three. These findings cast serious doubts about the importance and robustness of such violations for the understanding of real-life economic decisions.
Subjects: 
Conjunction fallacy
representativeness bias
group consultation
incentives
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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