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Title:A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis PDF Logo
Authors:Dreger, Christian
Herzer, Dierk
Issue Date:2011
Series/Report no.:Discussion paper // European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics 305
Abstract:This paper challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP and vice versa (short-run bidirectional causality), (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, but (iii) there are large differences in the longrun effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on nonexport GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence and business and labor market regulation. In contrast, there is no significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb new knowledge.
Subjects:Export-led growth
Developing countries
Panel cointegration
JEL:F43
O11
C23
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW
Diskussionspapiere, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Europa-Universität Viadrina

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