EconStor >
ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München >
CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/49493
  

Full metadata record

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorBasile, Raffaellaen_US
dc.contributor.authorChiarini, Brunoen_US
dc.contributor.authorMarzano, Elisabettaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-07-22en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-09-14T13:12:53Z-
dc.date.available2011-09-14T13:12:53Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/49493-
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policy in Italy by employing a database containing two statistical novelties: quarterly fiscal variables on accrual basis and a time series estimate of tax evasion for the period 1981:1-2006:4. Following Revenue Agency suggestions, we use in a VECM the time series of the concealed VAT base as a proxy for the size of unreported production, and define a regular GDP measure constructed as GDP net of government expenditure and evaded VAT base. The results reveal that we cannot rely upon the estimates of fiscal policy multipliers in countries with a sizeable unreported production unless the dynamics of the hidden and regular components of the GDP are disentangled. Changes in public spending and the tax rate generate a reallocation from underground to the regular economy which contributes to obscure the spending and tax effect on total GDP. In this setup the spending multiplier shows large long-run effects, considerably stronger than those registered in a model with no attention paid to unreported production. The drop in regular output, after an increase in the effective tax rate, tends to be considerable after one year, producing long-lasting effects and a significant increase in unreported production and tax evasion.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherCESifo Münchenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCESifo working paper: Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth 3521en_US
dc.subject.jelC32en_US
dc.subject.jelE62en_US
dc.subject.jelH26en_US
dc.subject.jelH62en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordfiscal policyen_US
dc.subject.keywordVECMen_US
dc.subject.keywordfiscal multipliersen_US
dc.subject.keywordunreported GDPen_US
dc.subject.keywordtax ratioen_US
dc.subject.keywordeffective tax raten_US
dc.subject.stwFinanzpolitiken_US
dc.subject.stwMultiplikatoren_US
dc.subject.stwFehlerkorrekturmodellen_US
dc.subject.stwSchattenwirtschaften_US
dc.subject.stwSteuerkriminalitäten_US
dc.subject.stwSteuervermeidungen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwItalienen_US
dc.titleCan we rely upon fiscal policy estimates in countries with unreported production of 15 per Cent (or more) of GDP?en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn664400957en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
664400957.pdf573.23 kBAdobe PDF
No. of Downloads: Counter Stats
Show simple item record
Download bibliographical data as: BibTeX

Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.