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Title:Conflict experiences and household expectations on recovery: Survey evidence from northern Uganda PDF Logo
Authors:Bozzoli, Carlos
Brück, Tilman
Muhumuza, Tony
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:Discussion papers // German Institute for Economic Research 1059
Abstract:We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.
Subjects:Conflict
Expectations
War
Welfare
JEL:D84
H56
O10
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:DIW-Diskussionspapiere
Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW

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