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dc.contributor.authorDreger, Christianen_US
dc.contributor.authorKholodilin, Konstantinen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-08-30en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-09-09T13:11:31Z-
dc.date.available2011-09-09T13:11:31Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/49422-
dc.description.abstractSurvey-based indicators such as the consumer confidence are widely seen as leading indicators for economic activity, especially for the future path of private consumption. Although they receive high attention in the media, their forecasting power appears to be very limited. Therefore, this paper takes a fresh look on the survey data, which serve as a basis for the consumer confidence indicator (CCI) reported by the EU Commission for the euro area and individual member states. Different pooling methods are considered to exploit the information embedded in the consumer survey. Quantitative forecasts are based on Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) and bridge equations. While the CCI does not outperform an autoregressive benchmark for the majority of countries, the new indicators increase the forecasting performance. The gains over the CCI are striking for Italy and the entire euro area (20 percent). For Germany and France the gains seem to be lower, but are nevertheless substantial (10 to 15 percent). The best performing indicator should be built upon pre-selection methods, while data-driven aggregation methods should be preferred to determine the weights of the individual ingredients.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherDeutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlinen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiscussion papers // German Institute for Economic Research 1066en_US
dc.subject.jelE21en_US
dc.subject.jelC22en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordConsumer confidenceen_US
dc.subject.keywordconsumptionen_US
dc.subject.keywordnowcastingen_US
dc.subject.keywordmixed frequency dataen_US
dc.subject.stwKonsumklimaen_US
dc.subject.stwGesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsumen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwEU-Staatenen_US
dc.subject.stwItalienen_US
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden_US
dc.subject.stwFrankreichen_US
dc.titleForecasting private consumption by consumer surveysen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn667375260en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
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DIW-Diskussionspapiere

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