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dc.contributor.authorRoos, Michael W.M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Ulrichen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-08-12en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-09-09T12:46:09Z-
dc.date.available2011-09-09T12:46:09Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/49378-
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical time-series information versus information acquired outside the experimental setting such as knowledge of expert forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the influence of outside-lab information completely. Consequently, backward-looking behavior can be identified unambiguously as a decisive factor in expectation formation.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherKiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kielen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesKiel Working Papers 1723en_US
dc.subject.jelD83en_US
dc.subject.jelD84en_US
dc.subject.jelE37en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordExpectationsen_US
dc.subject.keywordmacroeconomic experimenten_US
dc.subject.keyworduse of informationen_US
dc.subject.keywordinflation forecastsen_US
dc.subject.stwErwartungstheorieen_US
dc.subject.stwInformationsverhaltenen_US
dc.subject.stwInflationserwartungen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwTesten_US
dc.titleThe importance of time series extrapolation for macroeconomic expectationsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn665795254en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
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