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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/49378
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| Title: | | The importance of time series extrapolation for macroeconomic expectations  |
| Authors: | | Roos, Michael W.M. Schmidt, Ulrich |
| Issue Date: | | 2011 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Kiel Working Papers 1723 |
| Abstract: | | This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical time-series information versus information acquired outside the experimental setting such as knowledge of expert forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the influence of outside-lab information completely. Consequently, backward-looking behavior can be identified unambiguously as a decisive factor in expectation formation. |
| Subjects: | | Expectations macroeconomic experiment use of information inflation forecasts |
| JEL: | | D83 D84 E37 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW Economists Online Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW
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