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Technische Universität Dresden >
Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Technische Universität Dresden >
Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, TU Dresden >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/48139
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| Title: | | Partisan cycles and pre-electoral uncertainty  |
| Authors: | | Berlemann, Michael Markwardt, Gunther |
| Issue Date: | | 2003 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Dresden discussion paper in economics 01/03 |
| Abstract: | | Rational partisan theory of political business cycles suggests differences in inflation under left-wing and right-wing governments. It also suggests temporary post-electoral booms after election of left-wing governments and temporary recessions after election of right-wing ones. However, the core hypothesis that post-electoral booms and recessions depend upon the degree of pre-electoral uncertainty has rarely been tested. Using pre-electoral polling data, we provide empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of rational partisan cycles. We also show that - in line with most previous empirical studies - there is little evidence for partisan cycles under adaptive expectations. |
| Subjects: | | partisan theory political business cycles |
| JEL: | | E32 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, TU Dresden
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