Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/48139
Authors: 
Berlemann, Michael
Markwardt, Gunther
Year of Publication: 
2003
Series/Report no.: 
Dresden discussion paper in economics 01/03
Abstract: 
Rational partisan theory of political business cycles suggests differences in inflation under left-wing and right-wing governments. It also suggests temporary post-electoral booms after election of left-wing governments and temporary recessions after election of right-wing ones. However, the core hypothesis that post-electoral booms and recessions depend upon the degree of pre-electoral uncertainty has rarely been tested. Using pre-electoral polling data, we provide empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of rational partisan cycles. We also show that - in line with most previous empirical studies - there is little evidence for partisan cycles under adaptive expectations.
Subjects: 
partisan theory
political business cycles
JEL: 
E32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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