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Title:Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle PDF Logo
Authors:Döpke, Jörg
Issue Date:1998
Series/Report no.:Kiel Working Papers 886
Abstract:The paper investigates a set of possible leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle using aggregated quarterly data. The theoretical plausibility, the behavior at business cycle turning points and the mean leads are analyzed. Furthermore, evidence from cross-correlations and Granger-causality tests is presented. Taking all evidence together, real monetary aggregates, nominal interest rates and the interest rate spread are recommended as leading indicators, whereas survey data on order inflow and production expectations are the best coincident indicators.
Subjects:Business Cycle
Leading Indicator
European Monetary Union
JEL:E32
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW
Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW

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