|
EconStor >
ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München >
CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/46333
|
| | |
| Title: | | How prediction markets can save event studies  |
| Authors: | | Snowberg, Erik Wolfers, Justin Zitzewitz, Eric |
| Issue Date: | | 2011 |
| Series/Report no.: | | CESifo working paper: Public Choice 3434 |
| Abstract: | | This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government to the importance of complex rules in congressional committees. However, the results of event studies are notoriously sensitive to both choices made by researchers and external events. Specifically, event studies will generally produce different results depending on three interrelated things: which event window is chosen, the prior probability assigned to an event at the beginning of the event window, and the presence or absence of other events during the event window. In this paper we show how each of these may bias the results of event studies, and how prediction markets can mitigate these biases. |
| Subjects: | | prediction markets event studies political economy |
| JEL: | | A20 C58 D72 H50 G14 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich
|
| |
| | |
Download bibliographical data as:
BibTeX
|
| |
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/46333
|
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
|