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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/45897
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| Title: | | The effects of external shocks to business cycles in emerging Asia: A Bayesian VAR approach  |
| Authors: | | Utlaut, Johannes Friederich van Roye, Björn |
| Issue Date: | | 2010 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Kiel Working Papers 1668 |
| Abstract: | | In this paper we analyze the effects of external shocks on countries in Emerging Asia. For that purpose, we estimate a Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive model (BVAR) with an informative prior on the steady state, including variables representing world economic activity, financial conditions, Chinese GDP and an aggregate GDP index of eight East Asian countries. We show that almost half of the forecast error variance of Emerging Asia's real GDP growth can be explained by external factors. We also conduct an estimation of a classical VAR using maximum likelihood estimation and a traditional BVAR. An out-of-sample forecast evaluation shows that the BVAR with an informative prior on the steady-state outperforms both, the classical VAR and the traditional BVAR. Finally, we simulate a double dip scenario for the world economy and a muted growth path of the Chinese economy using conditional forecasts and show that the economic outlook in Emerging Asia highly depends on the growth path of the world economy and remarkably little on business cycle fluctuations in China. |
| Subjects: | | Bayesian Vector-Autoregression Structural Vector-Autoregression External Shocks Emerging Markets |
| JEL: | | F37 F43 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW
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