EconStor >
Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), Kiel >
Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/45893
  
Title:Identification of a core-periphery structure among participants of a business climate survey PDF Logo
Authors:Stolzenburg, Ulrich
Lux, Thomas
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:Kiel Working Papers 1659
Abstract:Processes of social opinion formation might be dominated by a set of highly influential agents acting as 'opinion leaders'. Here we explore whether such a perspective could shed light on the dynamics of a well known economic sentiment index. To this end, we hypothesize that the respondents of the survey under investigation form a core-periphery network, and we identify those agents that define the core (in a discrete setting) or the proximity of each agent to the core (in a continuous setting). As it turns out, there is significant correlation between the so identified cores of different survey questions. Both the discrete and the continuous cores allow an almost perfect replication of the original series with a reduced data set of core members or weighted entries according to core proximity. Using a monthly time series on industrial production in Germany, we also compared experts' predictions with the real economic development. The core members identified in the discrete setting showed significantly better prediction capabilities than those agents assigned to the periphery of the network.
Subjects:Business climate
network topology
economic expectations
JEL:C42
C83
D85
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW
Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
641992378.pdf1.82 MBAdobe PDF
No. of Downloads: Counter Stats
Download bibliographical data as: BibTeX
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/45893

Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.