Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/45548 
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dc.contributor.authorAlfarano, Simoneen
dc.contributor.authorMilaković, Mishaelen
dc.date.accessioned2011-05-13-
dc.date.accessioned2011-05-13T14:45:08Z-
dc.date.available2011-05-13T14:45:08Z-
dc.date.issued2010-
dc.identifier.isbn978-3-931052-83-6en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/45548-
dc.description.abstractA growing body of literature reports evidence of social interaction effects in survey expectations. In this note, we argue that evidence in favor of social interaction effects should be treated with caution, or could even be spurious. Utilizing a parsimonious stochastic model of expectation formation and dynamics, we show that the existing sample sizes of survey expectations are about two orders of magnitude too small to reasonably distinguish between noise and interaction effects. Moreover, we argue that the problem is compounded by the fact that highly correlated responses among agents might not be caused by interaction effects at all, but instead by model-consistent beliefs. Ultimately, these results suggest that existing survey data cannot facilitate our understanding of the process of expectations formation.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aBamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group on Government and Growth (BERG) |cBambergen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aBERG Working Paper Series on Government and Growth |x75en
dc.subject.jelD84en
dc.subject.jelD85en
dc.subject.jelC83en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordSurvey expectationsen
dc.subject.keywordmodel-consistent beliefsen
dc.subject.keywordsocial interactionen
dc.subject.keywordnetworks.en
dc.titleIdentification of interaction effects in survey expectations: A cautionary note-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn658134205en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:bamber:75en

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