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dc.contributor.authorAlfarano, Simoneen_US
dc.contributor.authorMilaković, Mishaelen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-05-13en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-05-13T14:45:08Z-
dc.date.available2011-05-13T14:45:08Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.isbn978-3-931052-83-6en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/45548-
dc.description.abstractA growing body of literature reports evidence of social interaction effects in survey expectations. In this note, we argue that evidence in favor of social interaction effects should be treated with caution, or could even be spurious. Utilizing a parsimonious stochastic model of expectation formation and dynamics, we show that the existing sample sizes of survey expectations are about two orders of magnitude too small to reasonably distinguish between noise and interaction effects. Moreover, we argue that the problem is compounded by the fact that highly correlated responses among agents might not be caused by interaction effects at all, but instead by model-consistent beliefs. Ultimately, these results suggest that existing survey data cannot facilitate our understanding of the process of expectations formation.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherBERG Bambergen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesBERG working paper series on government and growth 75en_US
dc.subject.jelD84en_US
dc.subject.jelD85en_US
dc.subject.jelC83en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordSurvey expectationsen_US
dc.subject.keywordmodel-consistent beliefsen_US
dc.subject.keywordsocial interactionen_US
dc.subject.keywordnetworks.en_US
dc.titleIdentification of interaction effects in survey expectations: A cautionary noteen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn658134205en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:bamber:75-
Appears in Collections:BERG Working Paper Series, Universität Bamberg

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