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dc.contributor.authorAdalet, Mügeen_US
dc.contributor.authorÖz, Sumruen_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-11-03en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-05-09T09:34:18Z-
dc.date.available2011-05-09T09:34:18Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/45412-
dc.description.abstractThis paper uses a simple VAR analysis to examine 5 CEE countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) in order to understand whether their business cycles are synchronized with each other and/or with the major economies that they are supposed to be linked with, namely the US, Germany and Russia. We find that there are differences across the CEE countries themselves and that there is no common CEE business cycle. Comparing the individual CEE business cycles with those of the dominant economies, we find that Hungary and Poland are related to the US business cycle, reflecting the fact that they are more integrated with the global economy, whereas Slovakia is closer to the Russian cycle. Finally, splitting the sample into the late 1990s and 2000s due to the transition nature of these economies in the former period shows that the influence of Russia on the CEE economies has declined over time. However, in contrast to the expectations that CEE countries are likely to be affected by Germany in the second half of the sample due to EU negotiations followed by full membership, among the CEE countries only the business cycle of Slovakia is synchronized with that of Germany. On the other hand the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are synchronized with the US business cycle, showing that globalization has decreased the importance of distance.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherTÜSİAD-Koç University Economic Research Forum Istanbulen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesTÜSİAD-Koç University Economic Research Forum working paper series 1014en_US
dc.subject.jelE32en_US
dc.subject.jelF15en_US
dc.subject.jelF41en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordbusiness cycle synchronizationen_US
dc.subject.keywordCEE countriesen_US
dc.subject.keywordEMUen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturzusammenhangen_US
dc.subject.stwTschechische Republiken_US
dc.subject.stwUngarnen_US
dc.subject.stwPolenen_US
dc.subject.stwRumänienen_US
dc.subject.stwSlowakeien_US
dc.titleBusiness cycle dynamics in the CEE countries: a political economy approachen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn638356636en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:ERF Working Paper Series, TÜSİAD-Koç University Economic Research Forum (ERF)

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