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dc.contributor.authorDöhrn, Rolanden_US
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Christoph M.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-04-04en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-05-02T13:57:33Z-
dc.date.available2011-05-02T13:57:33Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.isbn978-3-86788-228-6en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/45323-
dc.description.abstractThe accuracy of macroeconomic forecast depends on various factors, most importantly the mix of analytical methods used by the individual forecasters, the way that their personal experience is shaping their identification strategies, but also their efficiency in translating new information into revised forecasts. In this paper we use a broad sample of forecasts of German GDP and its components to analyze the impact of institutions and information on forecast accuracy. We find that forecast errors are a linear function of the forecast horizon. This result is robust over a variety of different specifications. As better information seems to be the key to achieving better forecasts, approaches for acquiring reliable information early seem to be a good investment. By contrast, the institutional factors tend to be small and statistically insignificant. It has to remain open, whether this is the consequence of the efficiency-enhancing competition among German research institutions or rather the reflection of an abundance of forecast suppliers.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherRWI Essenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesRuhr economic papers 201en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.jelE27en_US
dc.subject.jelE01en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordforecast accuracyen_US
dc.subject.keywordforecast revisionsen_US
dc.subject.keywordforecast horizonen_US
dc.subject.keywordeconomic activityen_US
dc.titleInformation or institution? On the determinants of forecast accuracyen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn635642387en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US
Appears in Collections:Ruhr Economic Papers, RWI
Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des RWI

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