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Title:Classical time-varying FAVAR models - estimation, forecasting and structural analysis PDF Logo
Authors:Eickmeier, Sandra
Lemke, Wolfgang
Marcellino, Massimiliano
Issue Date:2011
Series/Report no.:Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,04
Abstract:We propose a classical approach to estimate factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models with time variation in the factor loadings, in the factor dynamics, and in the variance-covariance matrix of innovations. When the time-varying FAVAR is estimated using a large quarterly dataset of US variables from 1972 to 2007, the results indicate some changes in the factor dynamics, and more marked variation in the factors' shock volatility and their loading parameters. Forecasts from the time-varying FAVAR are more accurate than those from a constant parameter FAVAR for most variables and horizons when computed insample, for some variables in pseudo real time, mostly financial indicators. Finally, we use the time-varying FAVAR to assess how monetary transmission to the economy has changed. We find substantial time variation in the volatility of monetary policy shocks, and we observe that the reaction of GDP, the GDP deflator, inflation expectations and long-term interest rates to an equally-sized monetary policy shock has decreased since the early-1980s.
Subjects:FAVAR
time-varying parameters
monetary transmission
forecasting
JEL:C3
C53
E52
ISBN:978-3-86558-693-3
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank

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