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Title:Julkisen talouden: Rahoituksellinen kestävyys Suomessa PDF Logo
Authors:Lassila, Jukka
Valkonen, Tarmo
Issue Date:2011
Series/Report no.:ETLA discussion paper 1237
Abstract:This study analyses financial sustainability of the Finnish public sector. Current tax rates are unlikely to yield sufficient tax revenue for financing public expenditure under an ageing population. The estimate of the sustainability gap is 2 1/2 per cent of GDP, for the period 2010 - 2060. The estimate is based on the 2009 population projection by Statistics Finland, where life expectancies are higher and net migration substantially larger than in earlier projections. Health and long-term care costs are modeled to be partly dependent on the proximity to death, and thus grow slowly compared to the growth in the number of old people. The higher initial public debt increases the vulnerability of the public finances to economic and demographic risks.
Subjects:public finance
pensions
health and long-term care
sustainability gap
JEL:H30
H62
H63
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:ETLA Discussion Papers, Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA)

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