|
EconStor >
Europa-Universität Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder) >
Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Europa-Universität Viadrina >
Diskussionspapiere, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Europa-Universität Viadrina >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/43591
|
| | |
| Title: | | Is there a bubble in the Chinese housing market?  |
| Authors: | | Dreger, Christian Zhang, Yanqun |
| Issue Date: | | 2010 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Discussion paper // European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics 290 |
| Abstract: | | For many analysts, the Chinese economy is spurred by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with possible adverse effects to the real economy. To get insights into the size of the bubble, the house price evolution is investigated by panel cointegration techniques. Evidence is based on a dataset for 35 major cities. Cointegration is detected between real house prices and a set of macroeconomic determinants, implying that a bubble exhibits mean-reverting behaviour. The results indicate that the bubble is about 25 percent of the equilibrium value implied by the fundamentals at the end of 2009. The bubble is particularly huge in the cities in the southeast coastal areas and special economic zones. While the impact of real house prices on CPI inflation appears to be rather strong, GDP growth may not be heavily affected. Thus, a decline of the bubble will likely have only modest effects on the real economy. |
| Subjects: | | Chinese economy panel cointegration house price bubbles |
| JEL: | | G12 R21 C33 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW Diskussionspapiere, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Europa-Universität Viadrina
|
| Files in This Item:
| |
|
| No. of Downloads:
| |
| last Month |
last 3 Month |
total |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| | |
Download bibliographical data as:
BibTeX
|
| |
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/43591
|
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
|