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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/43536
  
Title:'Google it!' Forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index PDF Logo
Authors:D'Amuri, Francesco
Marcucci, Juri
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:Nota di lavoro // Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei: Global challenges 2010,31
Abstract:We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard initial claims or combinations of both. We find that models augmented with the GI outperform the traditional ones in predicting the monthly unemployment rate, even in most state-level forecasts and in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Subjects:Google Econometrics
Forecast Comparison
Keyword Search
US Unemployment
Time Series Models
JEL:C22
C53
E27
E37
J60
J64
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:FEEM Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

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