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Title:Federal reserve information during the great moderation PDF Logo
Authors:D'Agostino, Antonello
Whelan, Karl
Issue Date:2007
Series/Report no.:Working Paper Series, UCD Centre for Economic Research 07/22
Abstract:Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commercial forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of 'naive' benchmark models, dropped remarkably during this period.
Persistent Identifier of the first edition:hdl:10197/964
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Working Paper Series, UCD School of Economics, University College Dublin (UCD)

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