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Title:On the likely extent of falls in Irish house prices PDF Logo
Authors:Kelly, Morgan
Issue Date:2007
Series/Report no.:Working paper series // UCD Centre for Economic Research 2007/01
Abstract:Looking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find a strong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequent fall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls of real house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9 years. House price falls tend not to have serious macroeconomic consequences, but the unusually large size of the Irish house building industry suggest that any significant house price fall that does occur could impose a difficult adjustment on the economy.
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Working Paper Series, UCD School of Economics, University College Dublin (UCD)

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