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dc.contributor.authorLux, Thomasen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T14:20:44Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T14:20:44Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/4301-
dc.description.abstractThis paper develops a methodology for estimating the parameters of dynamic opinion or expectation formation processes with social interactions. We study a simple stochastic framework of a collective process of opinion formation by a group of agents who face a binary decision problem. The aggregate dynamics of the individuals' decisions can be analyzed via the stochastic process governing the ensemble average of choices. Numerical approximations to the transient density for this ensemble average allow the evaluation of the likelihood function on the base of discrete observations of the social dynamics. This approach can be used to estimate the parameters of the opinion formation process from aggregate data on its average realization. Our application to a well-known business climate index provides strong indication of social interaction as an important element in respondents' assessment of the business climate.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherKiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kielen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesKieler Arbeitspapiere 1424en_US
dc.subject.jelD84en_US
dc.subject.jelC42en_US
dc.subject.jelE37en_US
dc.subject.jelC42en_US
dc.subject.ddc330-
dc.subject.keywordBusiness climateen_US
dc.subject.keywordBusiness cycle forecasts-
dc.subject.keywordOpinion formation-
dc.subject.keywordSocial interactions-
dc.subject.stwErwartungstheorieen_US
dc.subject.stwMeinungen_US
dc.subject.stwSoziale Beziehungenen_US
dc.subject.stwGeschäftsklimaen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturumfrageen_US
dc.subject.stwTheorieen_US
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden_US
dc.titleRational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate surveyen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn568784626en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
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Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW

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