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Title:How useful is the carry-over effect for short-term economic forecasting? PDF Logo
Authors:Tödter, Karl-Heinz
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,21
Abstract:The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is analysed 'statistically' and it is shown how it reduces the uncertainty of short-term economic forecasts. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the carry-over effect using simple forecast models as well as Bundesbank and Consensus projections.
Subjects:forecast uncertainty
growth rates
carry-over effect
variance contribution
Chebyshev density
JEL:C53
E37
C16
ISBN:978-3-86558-653-7
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank

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