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Deutsche Bundesbank, Forschungszentrum, Frankfurt am Main >
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/41622
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| Title: | | How useful is the carry-over effect for short-term economic forecasting?  |
| Authors: | | Tödter, Karl-Heinz |
| Issue Date: | | 2010 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,21 |
| Abstract: | | The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is analysed 'statistically' and it is shown how it reduces the uncertainty of short-term economic forecasts. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the carry-over effect using simple forecast models as well as Bundesbank and Consensus projections. |
| Subjects: | | forecast uncertainty growth rates carry-over effect variance contribution Chebyshev density |
| JEL: | | C53 E37 C16 |
| ISBN: | | 978-3-86558-653-7 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank
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