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Title:Price discovery in spot and futures markets: A reconsideration
Authors:Theissen, Erik
Issue Date:2009
Series/Report no.:CFR working paper 09-17
Abstract:We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage operations to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that the futures market leads in the process of price discovery. The lead of the futures market is more pronounced in the presence of arbitrage signals. Thus, when the deviation between the spot and the futures market is large, the spot market tends to adjust to the futures market.
Subjects:Futures Markets
Threshold error correction
Information shares
Common factor weights
JEL:G13
G14
Is replaced by the following version:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/70114
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:CFR Working Papers, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), Universität Köln

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