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dc.contributor.authorDovern, Jonasen_US
dc.contributor.authorZiegler, Christinaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T14:26:29Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T14:26:29Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/4134-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic indicators, and financial data. Almost all indicators are found to improve short-run growth forecasts whereas the results for four-quarter-ahead growth forecasts and the prediction of recession probabilities in general are mixed. We can confirm the result that an indicator suited to improve growth forecasts does not necessarily help to produce more accurate recession forecasts. Only composite leading indicators perform generally well in both forecasting exercises.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherKiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kielen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesKieler Arbeitspapiere 1397en_US
dc.subject.jelE37en_US
dc.subject.jelC32en_US
dc.subject.jelE32en_US
dc.subject.jelC25en_US
dc.subject.ddc330-
dc.subject.keywordleading indicators , forecasting , recessionsen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturprognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturindikatoren_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.titlePredicting growth rates and recessions : assessing US leading indicators under real-time conditionsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn557507316en_US
dc.identifier.ppn557507316en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW
Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW

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