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Title:The Golden Halo and Political Transitions PDF Logo
Authors:Aidt, Toke
Albornoz, Facundo
Gassebner, Martin
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 48
Abstract:In this paper we analyze the role of the IMF and the World Bank in triggering changes in the political regime, i.e., democracy and autocracy. We develop a theoretical model which predicts that anticipation of financial flows from international financial institutions may trigger political regime changes which would not take place otherwise. We test the implications of our model empirically and find support both for the role of perfectly foreseen IMF and World Bank programs and of the history of previous World Bank programs. The magnitude of this effects is quite substantial.
Subjects:political transitions
democracy
autocracy
political instability
Document Type:Conference Paper
Appears in Collections:Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, 2010 (Hannover)

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