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dc.contributor.authorBelke, Ansgaren_US
dc.contributor.authorGöcke, Matthiasen_US
dc.contributor.authorGuenther, Martinen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-12-04en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-09T09:50:38Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-09T09:50:38Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/39807-
dc.description.abstractThis paper deals with the impact of the $/€ exchange rate on German exports in the period from 1995Q1 to 2008Q4. Our main aim is to identify 'pain thresholds' for German exporters. We rely on a non-linear model according to which suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the EXR go beyond a kind of 'play' area (analogous to a mechanical play). We implement an algorithm describing play-hysteresis into a regression framework. A unique 'pain threshold' of the $/€ exchange rate does not exist, since the borders of the play area and, thus, also the 'pain threshold' (as the upper border) depend on the historical path of the whole process. We come up with an estimate of a play area width of 24 US dollar cent per euro. At the end of our estimation period, the previous exchange rate movements had shifted the upper bound of the play area to about 1.55 US dollar per euro. In our interpretation, this is the current 'pain threshold', where a strong spurt reaction of exports to a further appreciation of the euro is expected to start.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherZEU Giessenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiskussionsbeiträge // Zentrum für internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung 45en_US
dc.subject.jelC51en_US
dc.subject.jelC63en_US
dc.subject.jelE24en_US
dc.subject.jelF41en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordexchange rate movementsen_US
dc.subject.keywordplay hysteresisen_US
dc.subject.keywordmodelling techniquesen_US
dc.subject.keywordswitching regressionen_US
dc.subject.keywordexport demanden_US
dc.subject.stwUS-Dollaren_US
dc.subject.stwWechselkursen_US
dc.subject.stwVolatilitäten_US
dc.subject.stwAußenhandelswirtschaften_US
dc.subject.stwExportindustrieen_US
dc.subject.stwExporten_US
dc.subject.stwNachfrageen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden_US
dc.titleWhen does it hurt? The exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exportsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn614331560en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:zeudps:45-
Appears in Collections:Discussion Papers, ZEU, JLU Gießen

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