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Title:Money-output Granger causality revisited: An empirical analysis of EU countries PDF Logo
Authors:Hayo, Bernd
Issue Date:1998
Series/Report no.:ZEI working paper B 08-1998
Abstract:In this paper, the evidence collected in the large literature on testing for Granger-causality from money to output is revisited. Using a broad data base of 14 EU-countries plus Canada, the US and Japan, and quarterly data from the mid 60s to the mid 90s, a number of hypotheses from this literature is evaluated. It is found that very few general conclusions can be sustained. For instance, in most countries it is not the case that the use of data in levels creates a bias in favour of finding Granger-causality effects of money on output compared to using differences. Neither does the significance of money lags decline when increasing the number of variables included in the model. What appears to be robust, though, is that allowing for asymmetries clearly increases the likelihood of finding significant causality effects. Based on the Grangercausality test results, a number of country groups are obtained using cluster analysis, which are characterised by a similar behaviour with respect to the money-output relation.
Subjects:Money-Output Causality
Granger Causality
EU countries
JEL:E40
E50
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:ZEI Working Papers, Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung, Universität Bonn

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