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dc.contributor.authorDibooglu, Selahattinen
dc.contributor.authorKutan, Ali M.en
dc.date.accessioned2010-09-01T09:48:13Z-
dc.date.available2010-09-01T09:48:13Z-
dc.date.issued2001-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/39580-
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in two leading transitioneconomycandidates for admission to the European Union (EU), Poland and Hungary. Using arational expectations, dynamic open economy aggregate supply- aggregate demand model, weconsider real oil price, supply, balance of payments, demand, and monetary disturbancesincorporating important features of transition economies such as balance of payments disturbancesand finite capital mobility. Evidence indicates that supply shocks explain a sizable portion of pricelevel movements in Hungary while demand shocks are dominant in price level movements inPoland. Monetary shocks are an important source of output fluctuations in the short run inHungary suggesting nominal inertia. In Poland, real demand shocks affect output in the short run(up to one year), while monetary shocks are negligible. Estimates of “core inflation” based onhistorical realizations of the shocks suggest that a major component of inflation has been demanddriven, “core” inflation. Finally, policy implications of these findings regarding EU membershipare evaluated.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aRheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung (ZEI) |cBonnen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aZEI Working Paper |xB 16-2001en
dc.subject.jelE3en
dc.subject.jelP2en
dc.subject.jelO5en
dc.subject.jelC5en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordBusiness Cyclesen
dc.subject.keywordInflationen
dc.subject.keywordTransition Economiesen
dc.subject.keywordTime Series Modelsen
dc.subject.stwInflationen
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturen
dc.subject.stwSchocken
dc.subject.stwÜbergangswirtschaften
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen
dc.subject.stwVAR-Modellen
dc.subject.stwUen
dc.titleSources of inflation and output fluctuations in Poland and Hungary: Implications for full membership in the European Union-
dc.type|aWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn825487730en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:zeiwps:B162001en

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