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Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn >
Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung (ZEI), Universität Bonn >
ZEI Working Papers, Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung, Universität Bonn >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/39532
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| Title: | | Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning  |
| Authors: | | Wieland, Volker |
| Issue Date: | | 1999 |
| Series/Report no.: | | ZEI working paper B 09-1999 |
| Abstract: | | Since central banks have limited information concerning the transmission channel of monetary policy, they are faced with the difficult task of simultaneously controlling the policy target and estimating the impact of policy actions. A tradeoff between estimation and control arises because policy actions influence estimation and provide information which may improve future performance. I analyze this tradeoff in a simple model with parameter uncertainty and conduct dynamic simulations of the policymaker's decision problem in the presence of the type of uncertainties that arose in the wake of German reunification. A policy that separates learning from control may induce a persistent upward bias in money growth and inflation, just as observed after unification. In contrast, the optimal learning strategy which exploits the tradeoff between control and estimation significantly improves stabilization performance and reduces the likelihood of inflationary bias. |
| Subjects: | | optimal control with unknown parameters Bayesian learning monetary policy structural change learning by doing inflation targeting |
| JEL: | | E52 E40 D83 C44 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | ZEI Working Papers, Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung, Universität Bonn
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