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dc.contributor.authorHo, Joanneen_US
dc.contributor.authorOdening, Martinen_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-08-26T11:56:21Z-
dc.date.available2010-08-26T11:56:21Z-
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/39278-
dc.description.abstractCatastrophic wildfires in California have become more frequent in past decades, while insured losses per event have been rising substantially. On average, California ranks the highest among states in the U.S. in the number of fires as well as the number of acres burned each year. The study of catastrophic wildfire models plays an important role in the prevention and mitigation of such disasters. Accurate forecasts of potential large fires assist fire managers in preparing resources and strategic planning for fire suppression. Furthermore, fire forecasting can a priori inform insurers on potential financial losses due to large fires. This paper describes a probabilistic model for predicting wildland fire risks using the two-stage Heckman procedure. Using 37 years of spatial and temporal information on weather and fire records in Southern California, this model measures the probability of a fire occurring and estimates the expected size of the fire on a given day and location, offering a technique to predict and forecast wildfire occurrences based on weather information that is readily available at low cost.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherSFB 649, Economic Risk Berlinen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesSFB 649 discussion paper 2009,032en_US
dc.subject.jelC24en_US
dc.subject.jelC25en_US
dc.subject.jelQ23en_US
dc.subject.jelQ54en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordbiased samplingen_US
dc.subject.keywordforest firesen_US
dc.subject.keywordfire occurrence probabilitiesen_US
dc.subject.keywordfire weatheren_US
dc.subject.stwBranden_US
dc.subject.stwNaturkatastropheen_US
dc.subject.stwWetteren_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwWahrscheinlichkeitsrechnungen_US
dc.subject.stwStichprobenverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwKalifornienen_US
dc.titleWeather-based estimation of wildfire risken_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn603379567en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:SFB 649 Discussion Papers, HU Berlin

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