Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/38825 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2009
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
BERG Working Paper Series on Government and Growth No. 68
Verlag: 
Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group on Government and Growth (BERG), Bamberg
Zusammenfassung: 
In this paper we integrate heterogeneous inflation expectations into a simple monetary model. Guided by empirical evidence we assume that boundedly rational agents, selecting between extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to predict the future inflation rate, prefer rules that have produced low prediction errors in the past. We show that integrating this behavioral expectation formation process into the monetary model leads to the possibility of endogenous macroeconomic dynamics. For instance, our model replicates certain empirical regularities such as irregular growth cycles or inflation persistence. Moreover, we observe multi-stability via a Chenciner bifurcation.
Schlagwörter: 
Extrapolative and regressive expectations
dynamic predictor selection
macroeconomic dynamics
nonlinearities and chaos
bifurcation analysis
JEL: 
C62
C63
E31
E32
ISBN: 
978-3-931052-76-8
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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