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Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg >
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BERG Working Paper Series, Universität Bamberg >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/38760
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| Title: | | A simple model of a speculative housing market  |
| Authors: | | Dieci, Roberto Westerhoff, Frank |
| Issue Date: | | 2009 |
| Series/Report no.: | | BERG Working paper series on government and growth 62 |
| Abstract: | | We develop a simple model of a speculative housing market in which the demand for houses is influenced by expectations about future housing prices. Guided by empirical evidence, agents rely on extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to form their expectations. The relative importance of these competing views evolves over time, subject to market circumstances. As it turns out, the dynamics of our model is driven by a two-dimensional nonlinear map which may display irregular boom and bust housing price cycles, as repeatedly observed in many actual markets. However, we also find that speculation may be a source of both stability and instability. |
| Subjects: | | Housing markets Speculation Boom and bust cycles Nonlinear Dynamics |
| JEL: | | G12 G14 G15 |
| ISBN: | | 978-3-931052-69-0 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | BERG Working Paper Series, Universität Bamberg
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