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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/3777
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| Title: | | From transition crises to macroeconomic stability? Lessons from a crises early warning system for Eastern European and CIS countries  |
| Authors: | | Kittelmann, Kristina Tirpak, Marcel Schweickert, Rainer Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio |
| Issue Date: | | 2006 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Kieler Arbeitspapiere 1269 |
| Abstract: | | This paper uses a Markov regime-switching model to assess the vulnerability of a series of Central and Eastern European countries (i.e. Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic) and two CIS countries (i.e., Russia and Ukraine) during the period 19932004. For the new EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe, the results of our model show that the majority of crises in those countries can be explained by inconsistencies in the domestic policy mix and by the deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals, as emphasized by first generation crises models, while for the CIS countries analysed, financial vulnerability type indicators were the most relevant, i.e., indicators connected with the second and third generation of crisis model better explain the vulnerability of these countries. Additionally, the set of indicators choosen by our model is rather heterogenous, supporting the superiority of a country-by-country approach. |
| Subjects: | | EU CIS Early warning system Currency crisis Markov switching Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | | C22 F47 P20 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW Economists Online Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW
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