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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/37452
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| Title: | | Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit  |
| Authors: | | Gerdesmeier, Dieter Reimers, Hans-Eggert Roffia, Barbara |
| Issue Date: | | 2010 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2010: Ökonomie der Familie - Session: Global Liquidity and Asset Prices B3-V2 |
| Abstract: | | This paper contributes to the literature on the properties of money and credit indicators for detecting asset price misalignments. After a review of the evidence in the literature on this issue, the paper discusses the approaches that can be considered to detect asset price busts. Considering a sample of 17 OECD industrialised countries and the euro area over the period 1969 Q1 - 2008 Q3, we construct an asset price composite indicator which incorporates developments in both the stock price and house price markets and propose a criterion to identify the periods characterised by asset price busts, which has been applied in the currency crisis literature. The empirical analysis is based on a pooled probit-type approach with several macroeconomic monetary, financial and real variables. According to statistical tests, credit aggregates (either in terms of annual changes or growth gap), changes in nominal long-term interest rates and investment-to-GDP ratio combined with either house prices or stock prices dynamics turn out to be the best indicators which help to forecast asset price busts up to 8 quarters ahead. |
| Subjects: | | Asset prices house prices stock prices financial crisis asset price busts probit models monetary aggregates credit aggregates |
| JEL: | | E37 E44 G10 |
| Document Type: | | Conference Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2010 (Kiel): Ökonomie der Familie
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