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dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Sandraen_US
dc.contributor.authorNautz, Dieteren_US
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates whether financial market experts correctly perceive the reaction function of the European Central Bank (ECB) with respect to macroeconomic variables. Using survey expectations of financial market experts, we explain the individual interest rate forecast errors within the theoretical context of a Taylor rule. The empirical findings show that the financial market experts systematically misperceive the ECB's Taylor rule parameters. More precisely, their estimate of the inflation parameter is higher than the ECB's inflation parameter but becomes more accurate after an ECB 'clarification' about its monetary policy strategy in May 2003. The estimation results further suggest that the disagreement among experts about the ECB's reaction to inflation has not increased since the financial market crisis.en_US
dc.publisherVerein für Socialpolitik Frankfurt a. M.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesBeiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2010: Ökonomie der Familie - Session: Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty C16-V2en_US
dc.subject.keywordCentral bank communication, Interest rate forecasts, Survey expectations, Panel random coeffcient modelen_US
dc.titleWhy do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?en_US
dc.typeConference Paperen_US
Appears in Collections:Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2010: Ökonomie der Familie

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