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Title:The Golden Halo and Political Transitions PDF Logo
Authors:Gassebner, Martin
Aidt, Toke
Albornoz, Facundo
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2010: Ökonomie der Familie - Session: Developing Countries and Globalization G4-V3
Abstract:In this paper we analyze the role of the IMF and the World Bank in triggering changes in the political regime, i.e., democracy and autocracy. We develop a theoretical model which predicts that anticipation of financial flows from international financial institutions may trigger political regime changes which would not take place otherwise. We test the implications of our model empirically and find support both for the role of perfectly foreseen IMF and World Bank programs and of the history of previous World Bank programs. The magnitude of these effects is not only statistically relevant but also of economic importance.
Subjects:political transitions
democracy
autocracy
political instability
JEL:O19
F34
F42
Document Type:Conference Paper
Appears in Collections:Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2010: Ökonomie der Familie

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